Opec Oil Cuts

CNBC.com

Today’s economy is in constant flux. Outside of the regular factors impacting the global market, a number of high-profile military conflicts have unfolded over the last decade. From the ongoing civil war in Syria which broke out in 2011 and has since witnessed millions of civilians displaced, and another half a million killed to the crisis in North Korea, the world has become an increasingly dangerous place.

As of August, 2017, we find ourselves at the precipice of more military conflicts. These pose a threat to global stability, which, if impaired, would affect all areas of human existence. The global economy would absorb the brunt of the damage.

The top trend affecting global economy today is, without a question, ongoing military conflicts and threat of additional ones. Here are the top 3 (other) trends likely to impact the global economy in the coming year:

1. OPEC oil production cut deal

On November 30, 2016, the OPEC nations signed a deal to cut oil production. The major players involved: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq were trying to bring about a reverse in a two-year glut in oil prices. So far, the deal has produced mixed results, but the outlook is promising as OPEC states and Russia, who is also taking part in the oil cuts, have mostly kept up their end of the bargain. A comeback in oil prices will benefit the international market.

2. Changes to the economy, foreign policy under Trump administration

One of the biggest domestic policy changes newly-elected President Trump has been trying to implement is the deportation of illegal immigrants and placement of stringent limitations on current immigration policies. These regulations would put in place a point system under which immigrants would be accepted into the US based on their ability to benefit the local economy. While this policy will likely run into major pitfalls at the beginning as illegals are deported and American residents are unwilling to take on lower-paying jobs, it could end up benefiting the US economy in the long run as local businesses eventually return to America and production increases. Immigrants who are allowed to move to the US will be much more likely to boost the economy. Under Trump’s policies, millions of Americans stand to lose welfare benefits. This will take a lot of strain off government coffers and free up much-needed resources.

3. Brexit, nationalist movements in Europe

The surprising vote by Brits to leave the European Union is already bearing fruits. The British economy has come to life as local businesses begin to reign in profits. In the meantime, nationalist movements in Italy, Greece, Germany and Denmark pose a danger to political stability in Europe. If they succeed, they could put a damper on the flow of refugees from the Muslim world. This would likely benefit local economies which have struggled lately, but introduce new conflict to a historically volatile area of the world.